President Donald Trump’s push to tighten H-1B visa rules is expected to accelerate the offshoring of high-value jobs, as American companies increasingly turn to India-based global capability centers (GCCs) to run everything from finance to research and development, according to economists and industry experts.
India, now the world’s fifth-largest economy, hosts nearly 1,700 global capability centers, more than half of the world’s total. Once limited to back-office tech support, these centers have evolved into engines of advanced innovation, driving work as diverse as luxury car dashboard design and pharmaceutical breakthroughs.
With tighter visa policies and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence reshaping hiring priorities, U.S. companies are reworking their labor strategies. In that shift, India’s global capability centers are standing out as reliable hubs, combining access to international talent with an expanding pool of local leadership.
Reflecting on this, Rohan Lobo, partner and GCC industry leader at Deloitte India, stated, “GCCs are uniquely positioned for this moment. They serve as a ready in-house engine,” he stressed that he was aware of many U.S. companies currently rethinking their workforce requirements.
“Plans are already underway” for that transition, he noted, highlighting rising activity in financial services and technology, especially among companies tied to U.S. federal contracts.
Lobo said he anticipated GCCs would “take on more strategic, innovation-led mandates” as their role continues to expand.
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Earlier this month, President Trump hiked the cost of filing new H-1B visa petitions to $100,000 up sharply from the previous $2,000 to $5,000 range, intensifying the strain on American companies that have long depended on skilled foreign workers to fill key talent shortages.
On Monday, a group of U.S. senators revived legislation aimed at tightening oversight of the H-1B and L-1 visa programs, citing concerns over loopholes and misuse by large employers.
If President Trump’s visa restrictions are implemented, analysts say American companies are likely to move more advanced work spanning AI, product development, cybersecurity, and analytics to their India-based global capability centers, while retaining only core strategic functions internally.
The recent policy changes have intensified conversations around moving high-value work to GCCs, a trend many companies had already been exploring.
“There is a sense of urgency,” said Lalit Ahuja, founder and CEO of ANSR, which has assisted FedEx, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Target, and Lowe’s in establishing their GCCs.
Such rapid moves could result in “extreme offshoring” in certain situations, said Ramkumar Ramamoorthy, former managing director of Cognizant India, noting that the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that critical technology work can be performed from virtually anywhere.
“Either more roles will move to India, or corporations will near-shore them to Mexico or Colombia. Canada could also take advantage,” as per the India head of a retail GCC.
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Some remained cautious, opting for a “wait and watch” stance, particularly as U.S. companies could incur a 25% tax on overseas outsourcing if the proposed HIRE Act becomes law, potentially causing major disruptions to India’s service exports. “For now, we are observing and studying, and being ready for outcomes,” according to the India head of a U.S. drugmaker’s GCC.
Trade tensions between India and the U.S. are increasingly affecting services, as visa restrictions and the proposed HIRE Act threaten to erode India’s cost advantage and disrupt cross-border service flows. While India’s $283-billion IT sector, which accounts for nearly 8% of the country’s GDP, could face pressure, rising demand for global capability center services may help offset some of the impact.
“Lost revenues from H-1B visa reliant businesses could be somewhat supplanted by higher services exports through GCCs, as U.S.-based firms look to bypass immigration restrictions to outsource talent,” Nomura analysts stated in a research note last week, quoted by Reuters.
Even before President Trump’s steep hike in H-1B visa fees and the planned overhaul favoring higher-paid applicants, India was already set to become home to the global capability centers of over 2,200 companies by 2030, with the sector’s market value approaching $100 billion. “This whole ‘gold rush’ will only get accelerated,” said Ahuja, founder and CEO of ANSR, according to Reuters.