U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seems confident that the United States is safe from a recession even after a prolonged government shutdown. Bessent on Sunday said the 43-day government shutdown caused an $11 billion permanent hit to the U.S. economy, but he was optimistic about growth prospects next year given easing interest rates and tax cuts.
“I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, non-inflationary growth economy,” Bessent said.
In 2025, the United States experienced a 43-day federal government shutdown, lasting from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12. The shutdown halted many federal operations and services, affecting everything from administrative offices to public programs. Thousands of federal employees were furloughed, while critical government functions were delayed or temporarily suspended. This disruption impacted sectors that rely heavily on federal support, including infrastructure, permits, and public services, causing operational slowdowns across the country.
He blamed the services economy, not President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, for inflation — repeating the Trump administration’s longstanding take — and added that he expected lower energy prices to drive down prices more broadly.
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This year’s government shutdown had a noticeable impact on certain markets and industries, particularly those reliant on federal operations. Housing and construction sectors were affected as delays in permits, inspections, and infrastructure funding slowed project timelines. Federal contractors faced payment delays, disrupting supply chains and causing temporary uncertainty for manufacturing and services linked to government projects.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that he expected 2026 to be “an absolute blockbuster year,” although there would be a “hiccup” in the fourth quarter of this year because of the longest government shutdown.
A 43-day halt in federal operations affected thousands of employees, delayed essential services, and disrupted industries heavily reliant on government support, including housing, construction, infrastructure, and federal contracting. The shutdown caused measurable economic costs, estimated at $11 billion, demonstrating that even temporary interruptions in government spending and operations can ripple through both public and private sectors.
At the same time, broader economic indicators, such as consumer spending and employment, remained resilient, suggesting that the underlying U.S. economy retained strength despite the disruption. While short-term volatility and sector-specific slowdowns were unavoidable, these factors, coupled with adaptive markets, point to the economy’s ability to absorb shocks.
Many government reports, including economic indicators, labor statistics, and regulatory filings, were delayed, leaving businesses and investors operating with incomplete information. To reduce the effects of future shutdowns, it is crucial to enhance coordination between federal, state, and local governments, establish robust contingency plans, and guarantee consistent funding.