Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been captured and removed from the country following a major U.S. strike on Caracas, raising urgent questions about the nation’s stability and control over its vast oil reserves.
Venezuela holds one of the world’s largest concentrations of crude, with an estimated 303 billion barrels — roughly 20% of global reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That oil will play a central role in shaping the country’s next chapter.
Oil prices remain uncertain heading into the weekend, with short-term movement largely depending on developments in the coming days. Venezuela’s socialist government under Maduro has long been hostile to foreign oil investment, allowing much of the country’s energy infrastructure to fall into disrepair.
In the wake of the strike, the nation’s political direction is unclear, leaving questions about whether a future administration will maintain strict control over the struggling oil sector or adopt a more open approach to attract international investment and revive production.
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“For oil, this has the potential for a historic event,” as per Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group. “The Maduro regime and Hugo Chavez basically ransacked the Venezuelan oil industry.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that American operations in Venezuela have concluded following Maduro’s capture. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, a key figure in the socialist government that has ruled since 1999, could step in, but analysts say little would likely change under her leadership in the short term.
Maduro’s removal, however, raises the possibility of a political power vacuum, leaving Venezuela’s future uncertain. The United States continues to recognize exiled leader Edmundo Gonzalez as the country’s legitimate president, with backing from 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado.
“The next 24 to 48 hours will be huge,” Flynn stated. “If we see signs that the Venezuelan military supports the opposition, that’ll be a big win for global markets. On the flipside, if there’s a sense this will lead to further conflict or a civil war in Venezuela, we’ll get the opposite reaction.”
Despite sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s production remains far below its potential due to decades of mismanagement, underinvestment, and international sanctions. Official data shows the country holds roughly 17% of global reserves, or 303 billion barrels, surpassing OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, according to the London-based Energy Institute.
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A founding member of OPEC alongside Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, Venezuela once produced as much as 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s, accounting for over 7% of global output at the time. By the 2010s, production had fallen below 2 million bpd, and last year averaged just around 1.1 million bpd.
Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in the 1970s, forming Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. The United States was once the country’s largest oil customer, but over the past decade, China has become the main buyer following U.S. sanctions.
Exports effectively halted after former President Trump imposed a blockade on all vessels entering or leaving Venezuela in December 2025. PDVSA also controls substantial refining assets abroad, including CITGO in the United States, though creditors have been locked in long-running legal battles in U.S. courts to seize control.