By Keerthi Ramesh
As the United States stunned the world by sending military forces into Venezuela and capturing President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month, Indian officials and business leaders are closely watching the fallout from nearly 8,000 miles away.
The U.S. military operation, launched Jan. 3 under “Operation Absolute Resolve,” involved more than 150 aircraft striking Venezuelan targets and resulted in Maduro’s capture and transfer to New York, where he has been charged with narcoterrorism offenses. The unprecedented raid has sparked global debate over sovereignty, international law and the shifting balance of power in global energy markets.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) released a carefully worded statement expressing “deep concern” over the situation and called for all parties to pursue peaceful communications to stabilize the region. New Delhi stopped short of condemning the U.S. action directly, instead reaffirming “support to the well-being and safety of the people of Venezuela.”
The geopolitical reverberations extend far beyond South America. Analysts say the U.S. move has undermined China’s influence in Venezuela, a country Beijing invested billions in as a strategic partner, and could reshape how global powers maneuverer in the coming years. China condemned the U.S. strike as a violation of international law and asserted that sovereign nations’ security must be upheld.
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Some international observers have drawn links between the dramatic developments in Venezuela and broader strategic tensions with China, including concerns around Taiwan. Analysts suggest that although the U.S. action is unlikely to directly provoke a Chinese attack on Taiwan, it may encourage Beijing to further assert its territorial claims in the region as part of a larger narrative on global influence.
For India, the economic impact of the Venezuela crisis remains muted in the short term, according to a LinkedIn analysis of Indian energy markets. India’s crude oil imports from Venezuela have declined to near negligible levels accounting for roughly 0.3 percent of its total imports thanks to sanctions and diversified sourcing from Russia, the Middle East and other markets. That limited exposure has left New Delhi largely shielded from immediate supply shocks.
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Still, the crisis poses strategic questions for Indian markets and energy security. If international sanctions on Venezuela ease and political stability returns, India could revisit opportunities to reclaim investments or re-enter Venezuelan energy projects seized or suspended under U.S. sanctions.
Economists warn that the turbulence could fuel short-term volatility in crude markets, potentially affecting inflation and India’s currency, although the structural impact remains limited for now.
As New Delhi treads carefully between global superpowers and seeks to protect its energy interests, the Venezuela crisis underscores the complex interplay of geopolitics and markets in an increasingly unstable international order.