By Keerthi Ramesh
Contrary to widely held perceptions that artificial intelligence (AI) was the dominant engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025, new analysis shows that traditional consumer spending remained the most significant contributor to gross domestic product expansion last year.
Economists and market watchers had pointed to massive corporate investment in AI, particularly in data centers and advanced computing infrastructure, as a leading force behind robust growth. But a report released in January by Macro Research Board Partners (MRB Partners) suggests the real story is more nuanced.
While AI-related expenditures did support growth, their influence was far smaller than many headlines implied. Prajakta Bhide, a U.S. economic strategist at MRB Partners, said that once high-tech equipment imported from abroad is taken into account, equipment that boosts business investment figures but does not count toward domestic GDP, the net contribution of AI investment shrinks substantially. What remains dominant, she said, is household consumption.
“AI is an important part of the growth story, but it’s not the only part,” Bhide told CNBC, reflecting the central conclusion of the report. “It’s the U.S. consumer that continues to drive the expansion.”
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The analysis found that AI-related spending appeared to contribute roughly 40% of GDP growth when measured without import adjustments, but that figure fell to about 20-25% after accounting for high-tech imports like chips and telecommunications equipment. Those imports, while essential to building AI infrastructure, do not contribute to U.S. GDP. By contrast, consumer spending, which typically accounts for about two-thirds of overall economic activity, remained resilient throughout 2025, underpinning the nation’s expansion even as other sectors faced headwinds.
Government statistics released earlier in January underscored this trend, showing strong household consumption helped push annualized GDP growth to its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter. Despite lingering concerns over inflation and labour market pressures, households continued to spend on services and goods, a broad-based lift that economists say reflects underlying confidence in the economy.
The debate over AI’s role in the economy comes amid a surge of investment by major technology firms in computing infrastructure, including hundreds of billions of dollars poured into data centers, semiconductor purchases, and software development. While these outlays have ripple effects supporting jobs in construction and tech sectors and buoying financial markets , their direct impact on GDP is limited by their foreign-sourced components.
The evolving picture has implications for policymakers and investors alike. If growth remains anchored in consumption rather than solely driven by technology investment, the economy may be less vulnerable to a potential slowdown in corporate capital expenditure. Still, AI’s broader influence on productivity and long-term competitiveness is not in doubt among many economists. But for 2025, the headline narrative that artificial intelligence alone powered U.S. growth has been challenged by data showing the enduring strength of consumer demand.