Former Chief Economist of Washington state is also known as a humorist.
Bureau Report
NEW YORK: Arun Raha, the former Executive Director and Chief Economist for the State of Washington, was the top United States economic forecaster of 2012, according to The Wall Street Journal’s annual rankings.
The rankings are based on predictions made last January about how inflation, unemployment, interest rates and economic output would fare over the course of the year. Raha, who was at the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council when he made his predictions last year, but now works as director of corporate economics for Eaton, a Cleveland, Ohio corporation, “had a near perfect score in the Journal’s methodology developed by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.â€
He took the top spot “due in large part to his pretty much spot-on inflation predictions,†according to the newspaper, beating out 47 other competitors. “His forecast for 8% unemployment for the fourth quarter was a little higher than the actual of 7.8%, and his 2.1% prediction for year-over-year gross domestic product growth was a little too strong.â€
“The reason I made that forecast was that I noticed that gains in productivity had dropped sharply,” Raha said of his prediction of job growth last year. “Once you’ve squeezed every last bit out of existing employees and there is any increase in final demand, you have to hire some more people.”
“I think GDP was a little bit weaker than I forecast because of the special circumstances in the fourth quarter,†he said.
Raha says to “expect tepid 1.9% GDP growth this year, and just a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 7.7% by the end of 2013.â€
For 2013, the economists again expect the economy to grow 2.4%, but they see more underlying strength this year.
“We’re definitely in a better place now than at this time last year,” said Raha.
He cited gains in auto sales and the housing market as pent-up demand is unleashed. Meanwhile, after stalling in 2012, trade should help growth this year as China’s economy improves and Europe inches out of recession.
According to BigThink.com, the Journal wrote about the forecaster winners with no reference to their prior records in the competition. Some forecasters may be better than others, but the only way to find out is to see which of them are consistently in the top flight, it said.
Raha was 23rd out of 52 in the previous year’s ranking, it points out. So, did he have a special insight in 2012, or did he just get lucky? There’s no way to know, it says.
Raha, who has a Ph.D. in Economics from Washington State University, has worked previously as Swiss Re in New York. Born in New Delhi, he received his Master’s degree from Delhi School of Economics. He took over as the head economist of Washington in October 2008, just before the Great Recession hit, and resigned in January of 2012.
The Washington Ledge had at the time Raha left his state job, done a story on how he “had a way of breaking down his quarterly forecasts in simple terms and he was always ready with a deadpan joke or two.â€
The Ledge put some of the “Arun-isms,” which have been more popular, including: “Forecasting is like driving a car looking only in the rearview mirrorâ€; “Economists, unlike accountants, can go back and change their numbers without being sent to jail”; “I got this job by answering a simple math question: 3×7. I said 19. Apparently I came closest”; “Buy a car, buy a house or at least a strip mall (to help state revenues recover)”; “This isn’t the only time I’ve been led astray by a model – but last time, I was much younger and unmarried”; and “I have good news and I have bad news. The good news is the Mariners have re-signed Ken Griffey, Jr. The bad news is that he batted just .214,” among others.