As the International Space Station (ISS) nears its decommissioning in 2031, the landscape of low Earth orbit (LEO) is poised for a profound transformation. The retirement of the ISS marks the end of an era dominated by U.S.-Russia collaboration and ushers in a multipolar space economy, where national ambitions and private enterprises compete to establish their own footholds in space. China, India, Russia, and commercial players in the United States are all developing their own orbital habitats, each reflecting distinct strategic objectives and technological aspirations.
Since its launch in 1998, the ISS has served as a testament to international cooperation in space. Operated jointly by NASA, CSA (Canada), ESA (Europe), JAXA (Japan), and Roscosmos (Russia), the station has remained a crucial platform for scientific research and human spaceflight. However, as the aging structure nears the end of its operational lifespan, NASA has awarded SpaceX an $843 million contract to develop the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV), signaling a strategic shift away from reliance on Russia’s progress in spacecraft.
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Starting in 2026, the ISS will gradually lower its orbit through atmospheric drag. The final crew is expected to depart in 2030, retrieving essential equipment before the station undergoes a controlled re-entry over the Pacific Ocean, marking a significant space shift, with multiple new players stepping up to fill the impending void.
Rise of US Commercial Space Stations
With the ISS’s retirement, NASA is keen to hand over the task to commercially developed space stations. Leading this charge is Starlab, a free-flying station spearheaded by Voyager Space in collaboration with Airbus, Mitsubishi Corporation, and MDA Space. Slated for launch on SpaceX’s Starship, Starlab is designed to maintain a continuous human presence in LEO while providing cost-effective and geopolitically independent research facilities.
True to its commercial nature, Starlab is expected to host commercial research, space tourism, and industrial manufacturing, ensuring that the U.S. retains a significant presence in LEO without the geopolitical entanglements of the ISS.
China’s Tiangong: A Rival to the ISS
Excluded from the ISS program due to United States’ legislative restrictions since 2011, China has rapidly developed its own space station, Tiangong (“Heavenly Palace”). The first module, Tianhe (“Harmony of Heavens”) was launched in April 2021, with subsequent modules Wentian (“Quest for Heavens”) and Mengtian (“Dreaming of Heaven”) expanding its capabilities in 2024.
Tiangong is a fully operational research platform, supporting advanced microgravity experiments, life sciences research, and international collaborations such as the Spectroscopic Investigation of Nebula Gas (SING), a joint project involving Indian and Russian scientists. With plans for even larger kilometer-long space megastructures, China is setting the stage for long-term space resource utilization and deep-space exploration before the deorbiting of the ISS in 2031.
India’s Bharatiya Antariksh Station by 2035
Known for long after successful independent space missions to Mars and Moon, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is making strides toward its own space station, the Bharatiya Antariksh Station (BAS), targeted for completion by 2035. The 52-tonne modular station will orbit at 400-450 km and support crewed missions lasting three to six months.
BAS-1, the first module, is expected to launch in 2028 as part of an expanded Gaganyaan program. Ultimately, BAS will consist of five modules, accommodating 3-4 astronauts (up to six for short durations) and featuring a universal docking port compatible with the ISS, opening avenues for international partnerships. India’s foray into independent orbital infrastructure reflects its gradual upscale as a leading spacefaring nation.
Russia’s Independent Space Station Sets 2033 Target
Amid deteriorating relations with Western space agencies, Russia’s space agency Roscosmos has charted an independent course for its own orbital space station, expected to be operational by 2033 to serve as a successor to its huge involvement in the ISS.
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While the first research and energy module is scheduled for launch in 2027, subsequent additions—including a universal nodal module, gateway module, and baseline module— will culminate in a fully operational space station equivalent to ISS capabilities. By 2033, two specialized modules (TsM1 and TsM2) will be docked, sustaining its human spaceflight program independent of Western collaborations.
Unlike the cooperative model of the ISS, the future of LEO will essentially be shaped by a combination of national space stations and commercial endeavors, each reflecting distinct economic and strategic priorities. Though national projects reflect geopolitical competition, commercial initiatives may offset the impact with greater efficiency and innovation. But the future is certain that LEO emerges as a hub for fragmented but competitive expansion into space.