Opinion: A second Trump presidency promises strict immigration policies and center-right governance, but could inadvertently boost India’s workforce at home.
By Dan Mayur
The most passionately fought, bitterest and most expensive election in human history is now over. Donald Trump has won a convincing victory in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
The election result has saddened many, pleased some and shocked most Americans including the Indian diaspora.
Many self-appointed election experts are eating crow now. The election is over. The political pundits are busy again with their contradictory analyses. But really, no explanation, rationalization or justification is necessary or relevant. The American people have spoken. They have got what they wanted. This is how democracy works.
Trump’s ascent to the pinnacle of power this second time is certain to have some serious ramifications especially for minorities and immigrants. There is no doubt that the Democrats had gone overboard in coddling illegal immigrants and minorities like LGBTQ groups and transgenders. Their issues impact relatively fewer people and the Trump administration is certain to minimize the importance of these in its policy making. This means severe border control, serious deportation of at least some people and no financial coverage of things like transgender surgeries.
READ: Trump immigration agenda: From H-1B visas and H4 work permits to family sponsorships and deportations (November 9, 2024)
In general liberals and progressives will face serious difficulties in promoting their causes. The Trump administration will unabashedly pursue significantly center-right policies on environment, healthcare – particularly abortion, education, civil rights and foreign policy.
Trump vis a vis India
Visas for Indian job seekers and immigrants will become even harder to get or extend. While this has an immediate apparent negative impact, in the long run this might indirectly help India by keeping more talent at home and creating more job opportunities for Indians in India!
In general, Trump will be favorable to India. After all “Trump ji” is a friend to “Modi ji” both sharing their islamophobia. Also, no friend of China, Trump may create trade policies more favorable to India.
Trump and U.S. economy
The US economy is unlikely to improve significantly. Prices once risen, generally do not go down unless it is a commodity like oil. Further, Trump’s idea of tariff for all imports across the board is an absolute loser according to most economists.
The cost of living that suddenly increased in the last two years was an inevitable consequence of the global disruptions caused by Covid. The Democrats got the blame for it and got severely punished for it. The frustrated people wrongly give credit to Trump for the relatively low-price levels during his first term and thoughtlessly expect him to do the same magic in his second term. They will be unpleasantly surprised.
Trump and his rhetoric
Trump would continue to behave in an unrestrained and unpredictable manner with greater swagger this time around. He now has the Senate and the Supreme Court in his pocket already. To say the least, America is in for some very interesting times.
Trump and the wars
It is possible that the wars in Ukraine and the Middle-East may be stopped. Trump may tell Ukraine to give up what Russia has captured so far and avoid more bloodshed or no more U.S. aid. So, Trump will get credit as a peacemaker.
Gaza may stop soon as the surviving population may be too young, too old or ill-equipped to continue fighting. But just temporarily. Israeli brutality has created thousands of orphans. Ten years down the line, these orphans of today will be angry young men ready to take revenge. Israel is the biggest culprit here. The concept of Israel itself, on some land promised by God, was fundamentally unfair and wrong to begin with.
Indian stance on the war
Indians are hypocrites. I am sorry to say. In international politics, only self-interest matters. That is why India is sucking up to Russia in the Ukraine war – in order to get plentiful cheap oil from Russia
As well as spare parts for weapons and aircraft.
As for Gaza. India is becoming unabashedly Islamophobic; so, India is in bed with Israel and that means no support for Gaza. Just another example of how dirty politics is.
(Dan Mayur is a Texas-based author of several books, including Mumbai to Stockholm via New York and The Global Nomad. He is a financial consultant and a writer on socio-economic and political issues. He holds a PhD from Rice University.)
More from Dan Mayur:
Modi visit will likely be a huge party of wealthy NRIs (June 19, 2023)
Insanity of school shootings: This too is American exceptionalism (May 31, 2022)
Biden-Harris will be a winning combination in 2020 (April 26, 2019)
Modi in Houston: The Second Coming (of Indian Christ) (August 23, 2019)