Even if India opportunistically secures some tactical gains as a result of Donald Trump’s turbulence since his return to the U.S. presidency, the strategic losses it suffers could be enduring, according to Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Despite New Delhi’s feigned optimism, U.S.-Indian relations have also been disturbed by Trump’s global turbulence, says Indian American expert Ashley J. Tellis, Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Washington tank in a piece examining the impacts of Trump’s 100 days in office.
READ: The perils of Trump’s proposed tariff trade war (February 6, 2025)
For a quarter century now, bilateral ties between Washington and New Delhi had been dramatically improving, as successive U.S. administrations—including Trump’s during his first term—wooed India in the context of the competition with China, Tellis noted.
The embrace of India intensified during Joe Biden’s presidency, when New Delhi was viewed as an intimate collaborator in Washington’s efforts at confronting Beijing, he says. Consequently, India’s domestic illiberalism and trade mercantilism were discounted as administration officials sought to build new partnerships in high technology, entice businesses diversifying from China to invest in India, and position India as a new manufacturing node to limit China’s industrial dominance, according to Tellis.
These goals aligned perfectly with India’s own ambitions to expand its national power, which had the virtue of—at least transitorily—aiding the United States to cement its geopolitical dominance and protect the liberal international order, he says.
However, Trump’s return has altered the traditional direction of U.S. grand strategy in dramatic ways with his administration’s striking imposition of “reciprocal” tariffs on U.S. trading partners, and confrontations with many U.S. allies worldwide, according to Tellis.
In this environment, India has, first and foremost, sought to protect its past bilateral gains by seeking to mollify Trump through conciliatory public diplomacy to deflect the ravages of Trump’s new policies, he said referring to visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his senior aides.
“In a striking departure from the past, Trump’s behavior has underscored that he does not think much of India in the context of U.S. rivalry with China,” said Tellis suggesting,“His administration may have other ideas—which could surface in time—but for the moment, Trump is obsessed with correcting America’s trade deficits, which makes India a juicy target.”
Recognizing this priority, Indian policymakers have sought to conclude an interim trade agreement that would hopefully mitigate Trump’s 26% tariff on India, and offering assurances to amend India’s problematic nuclear liability law to permit U.S. nuclear reactor exports to India, he says describing these and other solutions as driven by the imperative of protecting India’s relationship with the United States in the changed circumstances.
While Indian policymakers are astute enough to recognize that Trump’s disruptive policies could impose serious costs on New Delhi, they have nonetheless publicly touted the benefits of his disorder while seeking to exploit its opportunities, he says.
READ: Canada, China, Mexico, South Korea, India among 10 countries to be hit by Trump’s tariffs on aluminum, steel (February 11, 2025)
New Delhi, according to Tellis views the United States’s attacks on its alliances and on international institutions as expanding the prospects for the emergence of multipolarity and, by implication, creating new space for India’s arrival as a great power.
But this expectation is illusory, he says suggesting Trump’s policies will enhance the conditions for China’s continued rise, to join the United States as a true great power for several decades to come.
“Whether this outcome really serves India’s interests remains to be seen, and even if New Delhi opportunistically secures some tactical gains as a result of Trump’s turbulence, the strategic losses it suffers could be enduring,” according to Tellis.