Kamala Harris would have lost despite higher turnout: Pew

Indian American presidential candidate Kamala Harris would probably have lost to Donald Trump making his third run for president in 2024 even if all Americans eligible to vote had cast ballots, according to a new report.

The overall margin in the popular vote too likely would not have been much different than 1.5 percentage points overall by which Trump defeated Harris by, winning 312 Electoral College votes and the national popular vote for the first time.

Trump won with a voter coalition that was more racially and ethnically diverse than in 2020 or 2016, according to a new analysis of the 2024 electorate by Washington think tank Pew Research Center.

Most adults who were eligible to vote in 2020 – but declined to do so – stayed home again in 2024. But among those who did turn out, Trump had the edge. Among all 2020 nonvoters (including those who were too young and ineligible to vote in 2020), 14% supported Trump in 2024 while 12% supported Harris.

READ: Kamala Harris asks people to shed fear and show dissent to stop Trump (May 2, 2025)

Roughly three-quarters of eligible adults did the same thing in 2024 as they did in 2020: voted for a candidate of the same party or did not turn out.

And about a quarter of eligible adults did something different in 2024 than in 2020: They switched their vote choice, voted in 2024 when they had not voted in 2020, or did not vote in 2024 after voting in 2020.

When asked how they would have voted, people eligible to vote who did not do so were fairly evenly split in their preferences: 44% said they would have supported Trump, while 40% said they would have backed Harris, according to the report.

This is a stark contrast to 2020, when those who didn’t vote expressed a clear preference for Joe Biden over Trump (46% to 35%).

As a result, if all Americans eligible to vote in 2024 had cast ballots, the overall margin in the popular vote likely would not have been much different, the Pew report suggested.

READ: Kamala Harris calls for resilience amid Trump’s presidency (February 24, 2025)

In contrast, if all eligible Americans had voted in 2020, Biden’s margin of victory would likely have increased.

Key findings

Trump improved his performance among several groups in 2024.

Among Hispanic voters, Trump battled to near parity in 2024 (51% Harris, 48% Trump) after losing to Joe Biden 61%-36% in 2020.

Trump won 15% of Black voters – up from 8% four years earlier.

Trump also did better among Asian voters. While a majority of Asian voters (57%) backed Harris, 40% supported Trump. This was a narrower margin than Biden’s in 2020 (70% to 30%).

These shifts were largely the result of differences in which voters turned out in the 2020 and 2024 elections, the report suggested.

In 2024, Trump benefited from higher turnout among those who voted for him in 2020. He also held an edge over Harris among voters who did not vote four years earlier – a group that was considerably more diverse than those who voted in both elections.

Educational divide. In each of his campaigns, Trump has held an edge among voters without four-year college degrees. But his 14-point advantage among non-college voters (56% to 42%) was double his margin in 2016. Harris won voters with college degrees by 57% to 41%, but that was smaller than Biden’s lead among this group in 2020.

A wider urban-rural gap. Trump won voters living in rural areas by 40 points (69%-29%), which was higher than his margins in 2020 or 2016. Harris’ advantage among voters living in urban areas was nearly as large (65% voted for Harris, 33% Trump).

Continued differences by religious attendance. Nearly two-thirds of voters who attend religious services monthly or more (64%) voted for Trump, while only about a third (34%) supported Harris. Harris held a narrower advantage (56%-43%) among the larger group of voters who attend services less frequently.

READ: Kamala Harris to receive NAACP Chairman’s Award at Image Awards (February 18, 2025)

While most of those who voted in 2020 cast ballots again in 2024, a larger share of Trump’s voters (89%) than Biden’s (85%) turned out.

And a larger share of those who did not turn out in 2020 – but did in 2024 – supported Trump (54%) than Harris (42%).

Between 2020 and 2024, 85% of those who backed Trump in 2020 did so again in 2024. About one-in-ten of his 2020 voters (11%) didn’t turn out in 2024, and 4% voted for Harris or someone else.

Harris received 79% of Biden’s 2020 voters. Compared with Trump’s 2020 voters, a larger share of Biden’s didn’t vote in 2024 (15%), and 6% voted for Trump or another candidate.

Naturalized citizens – immigrants who hold U.S. citizenship – who voted in the election split their votes about evenly, with 51% voting for Harris and 47% for Trump. In 2020, naturalized citizens favored Biden by 21 percentage points: 59% to 38%. In 2024, naturalized citizens made up 9% of voters.

Trump made gains among men – especially men under 50. Men favored Trump by 12 points (55%-43%) after being closely divided in 2020. In particular, men under 50 split their votes fairly evenly this year (49% Trump, 48% Harris). In 2020, this group backed Biden by 10 points (53% Biden, 43% Trump).