The American dream may be slipping further out of reach for thousands of Indians as the Trump administration plans to scrap the H-1B lottery — the almost-fabled gateway that powered countless success stories across the diaspora.
The Trump administration is reviving a proposal to overhaul the H-1B visa selection process by replacing the current lottery with a wage-based system.
Earlier this week, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), via U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), submitted a proposed rule to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) titled: “Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking to File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions.”
The rule is under review by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), and although details remain sparse, the proposal signals an intention to prioritize H-1B applicants based on wage levels or skill criteria rather than leave selection to chance through the traditional randomized lottery — a move that could transform how skilled foreign workers are selected for U.S. employment.
READ: Top companies that have historically been major sponsors of H-1B visas (January 3, 2025)
A critical shift for Indian professionals
The H-1B program, which allows U.S. companies to hire high-skilled foreign workers in specialty occupations, currently caps annual issuance at 85,000 visas — 65,000 under the regular cap and 20,000 for those with advanced U.S. degrees. Each year, Indian nationals dominate this pool. As per USCIS data, in FY 2024, Indians accounted for nearly 75% of all H-1B visas issued.
The program remains a vital pathway for Indian STEM graduates and tech professionals, many of whom come to the U.S. as international students and later, transition to work-based visas. But with this new proposal, the landscape could shift dramatically.
Legal hurdles ahead? Lawyers weigh in
The idea to replace the current random selection process with a “weighted” system, where petitions offering higher wages or requiring higher skill levels are prioritized, was first floated during Trump’s first term, facing delays and legal challenges.
Now, with a more immigration-restrictive team and the renewed influence of hardliners like Stephen Miller, it appears the proposal is being dusted off and fast-tracked. But is it legally feasible for DHS to unilaterally make this change?
Johnson Myalil, an immigration attorney at the Washington, D.C.-based High-Tech Immigration Law Group, cautions that DHS may be overstepping its authority. When asked about the rule’s legal standing, he says, “Introducing a wage-weighed H-1B selection criterion is beyond DHS’s authority and any such change requires congressional action. So, there is a high possibility of court challenges in this regard.”
Who gains and who loses?
Poonam Gupta, founder of Summit Legal PLLC in New York, talking about when and how this rule would affect applicants and employers, tells The American Bazaar: “The rule expected by March 2026 before FY 2027 filings would benefit tech giants and top-paying employers.”
“Selection may favor higher-paid positions, seniority, or in-demand sectors. Early-career professionals and lower-wage roles may be deprioritized,” Gupta adds. “It may be noted that the rule revives Trump-era efforts from 2021, now revised for new implementation.”
READ: Banks and telecom giants overtake tech in H-1B visa hiring, data shows (June 30, 2025)
Gupta’s insight underscores a looming concern — STEM graduates fresh out of U.S. colleges. Another vulnerable group, according to attorneys, would be startups, nonprofits, and small businesses, many of which rely on H-1B workers but can’t offer the six-figure salaries tech giants routinely do.
When asked who would be first hit by this change, Myalil tells The American Bazaar: “It will definitely affect small employers and non-profit organizations. They may not be able to match the huge wages that big corporations can offer. Further, this will also shut out foreign students, except maybe some high-demand PhDs from the H-1B pool as they would be without any significant work experience and hence, employers may not be willing to offer them wages beyond level 1 or level 2.”
What should aspiring applicants do now?
For Indian nationals planning to file H-1Bs in the next cycle, the uncertainty is unnerving. What can they do to stay competitive?
Myalil advises: “They should work towards enhancing their skills and improving their marketability. Another option is to consider non-cap H-1B jobs.”
READ: H-1B visa application made easy with AI startup Gale (March 4, 2025)
Gupta adds that strong internships and industry exposure may become critical differentiators. “A successful and productive internship can be the entry point for a high-paying job offer,” she says, adding, “particularly from employers with a track record of sponsoring high-wage roles.”
Could it actually become law?
While the proposal is likely to attract strong opposition from industry groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and major tech employers, Myalil believes that Trump 2.0 may push forward regardless of backlash. “There is no doubt that several industry organizations and corporations will submit comments opposing this rule. But considering the fact that this is getting reintroduced in Trump 2.0 era, and considering the significant influence of Stephen Miller in immigration matters, I expect the administration to proceed with the proposed rule.”
He adds, “Unfortunately, bodies likely opposing it like the Chamber of Commerce do not have any significant influence in the immigration policy of the current Trump administration.”
What comes next?
The proposed rule is now in OMB review. If approved, it will move to the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) phase. It will then trigger a public comment period. Given its far-reaching impact, the immigration and tech sectors are expected to respond vigorously. But for now, Indian workers, international students, and smaller employers can only watch and prepare to not get caught in the crosshairs of U.S. immigration politics.