President Donald Trump’s tariffs are here for the long haul it seems. On Monday morning, Trump said the baseline tariff rate for the world will be “in the range of 15 to 20% … probably one of those two numbers.”
“We’re going to be setting a tariff for essentially the rest of the world, and that’s what they’re going to pay if they want to do business in the United States, because you can’t sit down and make 200 deals,” Trump added.
NBC reports that that statement came some 12 hours after Trump announced an agreement Sunday with the European Union that would see a 15% tax paid on products brought into the United States from the bloc.
READ: Trump’s tariff campaign expands, but India escapes initial hit (July 10, 2025)
In 2025, Trump implemented a major shift in U.S. trade policy by introducing a baseline global tariff of 10% on most imports, starting April 5. This tariff applied broadly but excluded imports from Canada and Mexico under the USMCA agreement, as well as goods already subject to other measures such as Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. Energy imports like crude oil were also largely exempt. The administration framed the policy as a step toward “economic nationalism” and argued it would incentivize domestic production.
On April 9, the administration began implementing additional reciprocal tariffs on imports from about 60 countries. These were designed to match or exceed the tariff rates those countries impose on U.S. exports.
As a result, some countries faced combined tariffs significantly higher than the 10% baseline. For example, China’s effective tariff rate was estimated to exceed 100% on some product categories. By late July, the administration announced plans to raise the baseline tariff to 15–20% for countries that had not reached new trade agreements with the United States by August 1. These changes led to a sharp increase in the U.S. trade-weighted average tariff, with economists estimating a range of 12–18% by mid-2025.
The E.U. also reportedly agreed to spend $750 billion on energy purchases from the U.S., while investing an additional $600 billion here.
Trump’s plan to set a baseline tariff of 15 to 20% means most imported goods will face a permanent tax of at least that rate. This tariff applies to all countries without special trade agreements, making imports more expensive and encouraging U.S. manufacturing. It represents a lasting shift toward protectionism, signaling that these tariffs are not temporary. The policy pushes trading partners to negotiate better deals to avoid higher taxes.
READ: Trump announces 10% tariff on goods from China, will there be retaliation? (February 28, 2025)
NBC reports that in a note to clients titled “Trump winning on his terms,” Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro research group, compared Trump’s succession of deal announcements — which alongside the E.U.’s also includes ones with China, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines — to entering an ill-advised competition but still winning it.
“I can’t help but wonder that as every academic and critic of the White House lights their hair on fire over the effective tariff rate, America is taking some steps to rebalance our economy,” Dutta wrote, adding: “Entering a hotdog eating contest might be stupid, but if you eat the most hotdogs, you win!”
By setting a uniform tariff on imports from most countries, Trump aims to encourage domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on global supply chains. This policy pressures trading partners to negotiate bilateral deals to avoid higher tariffs, reshaping international trade relations. While critics worry about increased costs and economic disruption, supporters argue it rebalances the economy in favor of American industry. Ultimately, these tariffs signal a new era of economic nationalism with significant global and domestic implications.