The U.S. government revealed Tuesday that the economy likely generated 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than initially estimated, signaling that the slowdown in hiring had begun even before the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs.
The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued its preliminary annual benchmark revision to payroll data, coming just days after last Friday’s report showed that hiring nearly came to a halt in August. The figures also revealed that the U.S. economy lost jobs in June, marking the first monthly decline in more than four years.
The revised data suggests that monthly nonfarm payroll growth averaged only around 71,000 positions, well below the earlier estimate of 147,000. Economists had projected a downward revision in the range of 400,000 to 1 million jobs, and the final adjustment showed that total employment for the 12 months ending March 2024 was reduced by 598,000 jobs.
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told Reuters that “this means labor market momentum is being lost from an even weaker position than originally thought.”
Beyond the drag from trade policy uncertainty, the labor market is also feeling the strain of the administration’s tougher immigration stance, which has limited the available workforce. At the same time, many companies are increasingly adopting artificial intelligence and automation, further reducing the demand for human labor.
The BLS will issue its final benchmark revision in February, alongside the January employment report. That update will be used to adjust payroll figures for the months before and after March, ensuring the data reflects a more accurate count.
Employment losses are expected to be most pronounced in key service industries. Jobs in leisure and hospitality are projected to be revised down by about 176,000 over the 12-month span. Payrolls in trade, transportation, and utilities could see a cut of roughly 226,000 positions, while professional and business services are anticipated to decline by nearly 158,000 jobs.
READ: Numbers tell the story: US workers face layoffs and stagnant hiring (September 8, 2025)
Even the construction sector, which relies heavily on immigrant workers, lost 7,000 jobs in August, extending its streak of declines to a third straight month amid tighter immigration enforcement under the Trump administration. The July 4 tax-and-spending package, which boosted funding for immigration crackdowns, has amplified the credibility of large-scale deportation threats. At the same time, the federal government trimmed 15,000 positions last month, as its workforce came under increasing scrutiny from both President Trump and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
The monthly jobs report draws from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, which surveys roughly 121,000 businesses and government agencies covering about 631,000 worksites. By contrast, the QCEW dataset is based on employer filings with state unemployment insurance programs and reflects nearly 95% of total employment.
Tensions escalated last month after steep downward revisions to May and June payrolls, together wiping out 258,000 jobs, prompted President Trump to dismiss BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, alleging without evidence that she falsified data. He has since nominated E.J. Antoni, a commentator known for criticizing the BLS and even suggesting a suspension of the monthly jobs report, a move that has drawn widespread concern from economists who question his qualifications.
Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, told Reuters, “any political retaliation due to today’s release will harm the ability for BLS to provide timely and unbiased statistics.”
Amid the political turmoil surrounding recent revisions, the National Association for Business Economics issued a call on Monday for unity in defending the nation’s data integrity. The group urged “policymakers, business leaders, and the economics community to stand with BLS and ensure that America’s statistics remain accurate, independent, and trusted worldwide.”