A just-launched wage-based calculator promises to offer early clues on your realistic chances to win the H-1B lottery this year. Sampei Omichi, founder and CEO at Ellis, in talks to the American Bazaar, talks about this new tool.
The countdown for the H-1B registration has begun. USCIS recently announced this year’s H-1B registration dates, which open on March 04 this year and close on March 19. With the selection notifications coming in as early as March 31.
Anyone even slightly clued in with immigration and visa policies would know that this year’s H-1B lottery looks very different from the previous years. The introduction of a wage-based weighted system, as well as the much-talked-about $100,000 fee applicable at the time of petition, has definitely added a new complexity around the H-1B lottery this year.
In order to help applicants and corporates navigate the new H-1B changes and ascertain the individual odds of obtaining an H-1B visa, NY-based immigration law firm Ellis has launched something truly unique—an H-1B lottery calculator.
The calculator is said to help applicants understand their odds in the lottery process and make crucial decisions based on their chances. Using the latest Office of Foreign Labor Certification (OFLC) wage dataset, the tool helps applicants to calculate the chances of their lottery selection under a new wage-weighted system.
Sampei Omichi, founder and CEO at Ellis, in conversation with the American Bazaar, talks about this new tool and explains how the calculator helps estimate an applicant’s wage level using the latest data and important parameters such as location. He also unpacks how the H-1B odds calculator can be a powerful tool for both candidates and employers.
READ: H-1B FY 2027 registration opens March 4 as USCIS changes selection rules (
American Bazaar: How does the H-1B lottery odds calculator work? What inputs does it rely on, and what data sources or assumptions are used to estimate selection odds?
Sampei Omichi: The calculator is based on last year’s H-1B lottery data, adjusted for this year’s new wage-based system. Last year there were about 343,000 registrations. Because a new $100,000 fee for some applicants might reduce the number of people that apply, users can adjust the assumed number of registrations to see how that affects their odds. This year’s lottery is wage-based, so it gives more chances to applicants with higher-paying jobs. USCIS groups jobs into four wage levels based on pay and location. The calculator estimates an applicant’s wage level using recent USCIS data and the location they enter.
In the lottery, each wage level gets a different number of chances: wage level 1 gets one entry, level 2 gets two, level 3 gets three, and level 4 gets four. All entries go into one pool, so higher wage levels have better odds. Using last year’s wage breakdown, the calculator estimates the size of the pool and the chance that an applicant is selected.
Why is this year’s H-1B lottery fundamentally different from previous years for applicants?
This is the first year the H-1B lottery won’t be random. USCIS is moving to a wage-based system, which gives higher-paid jobs more chances to be selected. Applicants are grouped into four wage levels, and each higher level gets more entries. So, two people in the same location can apply at the same time, but the one in the higher salary group will have better odds simply because they get more chances in the draw.
Which types of applicants stand to benefit most from understanding their odds early in the process?
Honestly, everyone applying would benefit. For different reasons, like a lot of the uncertainty is now in wage level 1, as opposed to 4, which is much more likely now. A lottery can already be overwhelming and stressful, and having a clear sense of your chances helps make it feel more manageable. Seeing your odds laid out lets people plan important decisions ahead of time that depend on the lottery results. like finances, job changes, or exploring backup immigration options, all of which depend on whether they’re likely to be selected or not.
READ: New H-1B visa rules in effect February 2026 as DHS ends random lottery system (
Do you think wage-weighted selection achieves its stated policy goals, or does it introduce new inequities? What does this shift mean for employers, particularly startups versus large tech companies?
From our perspective, this change does not help little tech. Startups make up the majority of the employers we work with, and many early-stage companies are more likely to be at a disadvantage under this wage-based system. Larger companies can usually afford the higher wage levels, which now directly mean better lottery odds.
That makes it harder for startups to compete for talent, even when the role or the candidate is a strong fit. So, it definitely introduces imbalances that aren’t present in a random system.
Who do you think this tool benefits most? Also, how can tools like this help employers decide on job offers or salary brackets for H-1B candidates?
The calculator is helpful for both candidates and employers. It can be especially useful for employers that have flexibility in their offers, since seeing their odds clearly allows them to plan and strategize with the resources they have. If a company has room to adjust pay, understanding exactly how higher wage levels improve selection chances can help them budget resources and structure offers to maximize their odds.