Billionaire Elon Musk drew attention on X to India’s declining birth rate, noting that it has fallen below the replacement level. “India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago,” Musk wrote, quoting a post from AF Post.
The post stated that “India’s fertility rate has fallen below replacement for the first time in the country’s history, declining from a TFR of 2.3 to 1.9 in just a decade. Delhi’s fertility rate now sits at 1.2, lower than Finland’s.” It also included a chart comparing fertility rates across Indian states with those of countries including South Korea, China, Finland, Norway and the United States.
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According to the United Nations Population Fund’s State of World Population Report 2025, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) stands at 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population over time.
The decline is particularly notable given that India surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. Speaking to The Indian Express, Moradhvaj Dhakad said earlier projections had expected India to reach below-replacement fertility between 2030 and 2035, but the country achieved that milestone around 2020.
Reasons for the lowering birth rate include financial limitations, unemployment, health-related issues and social factors. There is also a significant difference between urban and rural India when it comes to fertility rate. The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) shows the rural-urban divide.
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According to the SRS data, urban fertility is well below replacement level at roughly 1.6 children per woman. Meanwhile, rural fertility remains around the 2.1 mark, which is closer to the replacement level. In 2014, India’s TFR was at 2.3, with rural India at 2.5 and urban India at 1.8.
There is also a significant variation between different states, with the rates in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Karnataka in the 1.6 to 1.7 range, while Bihar having the highest rate at 3. However, reports have mentioned that India is not facing a population collapse, but a gradual demographic transition.
Musk had been drawing attention to falling birth rates around the world for a while, even saying he thinks “civilization is going to crumble” if women don’t have more babies. However, he has also been criticized for supporting policies and economic ideals that may not be conducive to having more children.