International student enrollment at U.S. colleges and universities could fall 9.5% this fall, potentially costing local economies $3.4 billion in spending and more than 39,000 jobs, according to new projections from NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International.
The preliminary analysis, released Tuesday, estimates that up to 110,000 fewer international students could enroll at U.S. colleges and universities this fall.
The projections are based on responses from U.S. higher education institutions included in the Institute of International Education’s Spring 2026 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange.
The groups said visa bans, disruptions in visa interviews and processing, and broader policy uncertainty are contributing to the expected decline.
“The projections underscore what we’ve long warned: U.S. policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future—and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for U.S. society and economy,” said Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators.
“All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries. Forfeiting U.S position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economies—and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on U.S. soil. There is ample capacity in this country for their innovation, perspectives, and ambition. We urge the administration and Congress to take swift action to ensure international student contributions continue to benefit American ingenuity, economic prosperity, and national security.”
International applications decline
The groups pointed to several factors behind the projected decline.
International applications to U.S. doctoral programs fell 21% for this fall, according to recent data collected by the Association of American Universities Data Exchange. International admissions declined 17%, while overall doctoral program admissions fell 15%, the release said.
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The groups attributed part of the decline to uncertainty surrounding federal research funding.
Visa restrictions are another factor.
A Dec. 16, 2025, executive order established restrictions targeting 39 countries, with no exceptions for F-1 student or J-1 exchange visitor applicants, according to the release. The countries covered by the restrictions include Iran and Nigeria, which send large numbers of students to the United States.
Visa processing during the 2026 FIFA World Cup also affected the timing of student and exchange visitor applications, NAFSA and JB International said.
The State Department announced priority visa processing for FIFA World Cup ticket holders traveling to the United States. The tournament’s final game was held July 19, during what is traditionally the peak season for student and exchange visitor visas, which runs from May through August.
Historically, the State Department has prioritized student and scholar visa applications during this period to help students arrive on U.S. campuses on time, according to the release.
Visa appointment delays add to uncertainty
Limited or delayed visa appointments have also been reported at U.S. consulates in India, China and across Europe, according to NAFSA and JB International.
The groups said many requests for expedited appointments have been denied.
India and China are the two largest sources of international students to the United States, according to the release.
The groups also pointed to changes involving the immigration status of international students.
In August 2025, the Department of Homeland Security proposed eliminating the longstanding “duration of status” framework for F students and J exchange visitors.
DHS has since published a final rule that, beginning Sept. 15, 2026, will replace duration of status with a fixed Admit-Until-Date, or AUD, according to the release.
NAFSA said the change could create additional planning uncertainty for prospective students, particularly those considering longer-degree programs or careers with uncertain timelines.
The organization also pointed to continued uncertainty over the future of the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows eligible F-1 students to gain work experience in the United States after completing their studies.
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NAFSA said OPT is an important tool for addressing labor shortages in key fields, particularly STEM.
NAFSA calls for policy changes
NAFSA is urging the administration to take several steps to reverse the projected decline.
The organization wants the administration to prioritize visa interview availability and processing for all F and M students and J exchange visitors.
It also wants F and M students and J exchange visitors to be exempted from the current travel ban affecting nationals of 39 countries, while maintaining the background checks and vetting required for visa issuance.
NAFSA is also calling for the preservation of OPT for all F-1 students.
The organization warned that a continued decline in international enrollment could have consequences beyond college campuses.
International students contribute to local economies through spending on housing, transportation, food and other goods and services. They also contribute to U.S. universities and research programs.
“The projections underscore what we’ve long warned,” Aw said, arguing that policies affecting international students also affect the broader U.S. economy, research institutions and the country’s ability to attract global talent.