Former U.S. Rep. George Santos has received the first lifetime ban issued by prediction-market platform Kalshi after the company concluded that he manipulated a market tied to his attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.
Kalshi also imposed a $71,356 penalty on Santos, citing his failure to cooperate with the company’s investigation into his trading activity.
The disciplinary action follows a federal regulatory case involving Santos’ bets on whether he would attend the State of the Union address. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission previously accused him of using misleading public statements to influence the market while trading contracts whose outcome he could affect.
According to the findings cited by Kalshi and regulators, Santos made bets related to his attendance and publicly indicated that he planned to attend the address. He ultimately did not appear, allowing him to profit from positions tied to his absence.
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The CFTC said Santos earned more than $17,000 through the trading activity. He later settled the agency’s case and agreed to pay more than $35,000 without admitting wrongdoing. The regulator also imposed a three-year ban on his participation in prediction markets.
Kalshi’s lifetime ban is separate from the CFTC action and prevents Santos from trading on the platform permanently.
The case comes as prediction markets face growing scrutiny from regulators over whether participants with access to relevant information can improperly profit from event contracts. Kalshi and rival platform Polymarket have expanded rapidly, offering contracts tied to politics, sports, economic indicators and other events.
Federal regulators have recently pursued other cases involving alleged insider trading on prediction markets. A former White House teleprompter operator, for example, was ordered to surrender more than $100,000 in profits and pay a $65,000 penalty after the CFTC accused him of using information about presidential speeches to trade on Kalshi.
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Kalshi has responded to the scrutiny with additional enforcement actions. The company also announced penalties against political candidates who traded on contracts involving their own campaigns.
Santos, a former Republican congressman from New York, was expelled from the House in December 2023 following a congressional ethics investigation. He later pleaded guilty to federal wire fraud and identity theft charges. President Donald Trump commuted his sentence in 2025.
The Kalshi action adds another chapter to Santos’ already lengthy record of legal and political controversies while highlighting a broader challenge facing prediction markets: preventing traders from using personal knowledge or influence to gain an advantage in markets tied to events they can affect.