By Rajwa Quasim
Public interest in the possibility of removing President Donald Trump from office has reached unusually high levels in several U.S. states, even as prediction markets tell a contrasting story.
According to data compiled by iGaming and betting research firm VIP-Grinders, searches for terms such as “how to impeach the president” and “how to remove a president from office without impeachment” remain historically elevated and are spread across the country.
Wyoming recorded the highest level of interest, with 84.6 searches per 100,000 residents. It is more than twice the national average of 36.9.
Vermont ranked second, with 77.8 searches per 100,000 residents, followed by Alaska at 67.8 and North Dakota at 55.9. Trump’s home state, Florida, ranked fifth at 53.5, putting the state’s 23.7 million residents ahead of populous states such as New York and Texas in per-capita search interest.
New York, where the president was born and built his business career, ranked last among all states, with an average search volume of 16.0 per 100,000 residents.
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The five states at the bottom of the list were Ohio, which ranked 46th at 23.03; Illinois, 47th at 21.59; Pennsylvania, 48th at 21.04; Massachusetts, 49th at 18.97; and New York, which ranked 50th.
Search activity therefore suggests sustained curiosity and public attention, though it does not necessarily reflect public opinion.
On the other hand, on betting markets such as Polymarket, the implied probability of “Trump out as President before 2027?” has fallen from a peak of 20.5% in mid-November 2025 to as low as 5.5% in mid-August 2026. By Aug. 24, it had ticked up slightly to 6.5%.
This means traders now place roughly a 6% chance on Trump leaving office before 2027 and believe he is likely to complete his term.
By April, the implied probability stood at 16.3%, before falling to 11.3% in May, 10% in June and 7.4% in July.
Polymarket is a prediction market where traders buy and sell shares tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring. Each share is priced between 1 cent and 99 cents. For instance, a share priced at 6 cents suggests a 6% chance of the event occurring. If the event happens, the share pays $1; if it does not, the trader loses the amount paid for the share.
However, prediction and betting markets should not be considered definitive forecasts. The views of market participants can change as events unfold.
The most widely cited contract, “Trump out as President before 2027?” has attracted about $10.9 million in trading volume as of now. Another contract, “Trump out as President by 31 August,” had $1.8 million in trading volume and is now resolved. The main contract has been active since November 2025.
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According to Joao Mourato, head of iGaming product at VIP-Grinders, “Search data like this is a useful proxy for where political anxiety, or political enthusiasm, is running highest. Wyoming topping the table doesn’t tell us whether the state wants Trump to stay or go, only that a small, close-knit population is paying disproportionate attention to the question of how a presidency can end.”
He pointed to Florida, considered the president’s home state, saying the curiosity is not confined to America’s quietest corners.
Mourato further added, “What’s interesting from a prediction markets perspective is how closely search behavior like this tracks the same appetite that’s driving money into platforms like Polymarket. People are no longer just reading about political uncertainty; they’re actively trying to price it. That shift, from spectator to participant, is one of the defining stories of gambling and betting culture in 2026.”
Overall, the data highlights a contrast between public curiosity and betting-market predictions, with the two ultimately moving in opposite directions as of now.