Elon Musk and other conservative donors are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the Texas Senate race to help Republican candidate Ken Paxton overcome a persistent polling disadvantage against Democrat James Talarico, as the Nov. 3 election approaches.
The contest, one of the most competitive statewide races in Texas in decades, has attracted more than $500 million in advertising spending, putting it on course to become the most expensive U.S. Senate race in history, according to Reuters.
Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur behind Tesla, SpaceX, and X, contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican Senate super PAC. The group then transferred matching amounts to Texas PAC, a Republican super PAC supporting Paxton, according to federal campaign finance filings Reuters cited.
Despite the substantial financial backing, polls have shown Talarico maintaining a narrow lead, generally within the margin of error. With early voting underway and Election Day approaching, Republicans are increasingly focused on mobilizing their supporters rather than persuading undecided voters.
“The money being spent now isn’t for persuasion. It’s for mobilization,” James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, told Reuters.
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Republican strategists have expressed concern about enthusiasm among their voters, particularly as inflation, the cost of living and dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s handling of the war with Iran weigh on the political environment.
Musk’s money reshapes the race
Outside groups supporting Paxton have spent approximately $239 million, more than five times the roughly $45 million spent by the largest Democratic-aligned groups, according to Reuters.
Texas PAC alone has accounted for nearly $149 million in spending. The Senate Leadership Fund established the group as Republicans sought to counter Talarico’s earlier advantage in campaign advertising. Musk’s donations have provided a significant financial boost to the Republican effort in his adopted home state. The entrepreneur has relocated several of his business operations to Texas, including Tesla’s corporate headquarters and SpaceX’s operations.
The donations also represent a renewed commitment to Republican political spending by Musk, who had previously indicated that he intended to scale back his political contributions.
According to Reuters, the Republican financial push gathered momentum relatively late in the campaign. President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC also began major spending in the race in early September.
Republican donor and oil businessman Dan Eberhart described the influx of money as arriving at a crucial moment for Paxton. “I think the cavalry arrived just in the nick of time for Paxton,” Eberhart told Reuters.
Talarico counters with grassroots fundraising
Despite the Republican spending advantage, Talarico has built a substantial fundraising operation of his own.
His campaign reported raising $64 million between July and September, more than three times Paxton’s total for the same period. Approximately 97% of the donations were below $100, according to figures cited by Reuters. Talarico spent $61 million on advertising through September, while Lone Star Rising PAC, the largest Democratic outside group in the race, spent approximately $19.3 million.
The campaign’s fundraising performance has helped Talarico remain competitive despite the financial advantage enjoyed by Republican-aligned groups.
The contest has also attracted national attention because of its potential implications for control of the Senate. Republicans are seeking to retain their majority, making the outcome in Texas important to the party’s broader midterm election strategy.
Trump has endorsed Paxton, who serves as Texas attorney general. The president’s support and the spending by Republican-aligned groups have made the race a central part of the party’s efforts to protect its Senate position.
Culture-war advertising dominates campaign
Republican advertising has increasingly focused on social and cultural issues, particularly transgender rights, rather than the economy, which remains a major concern for voters. Texas PAC advertisements have accused Talarico of supporting taxpayer-funded gender-transition surgeries for minors and used slogans portraying him as out of step with conservative voters.
PolitiFact rated one such claim false, according to Reuters. Talarico opposed a 2023 ban on gender-transition care for minors but has said he opposes gender-reassignment surgery for children.
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A Paxton campaign advertisement also featured an AI-generated version of Talarico reading from a fictional Bible incorporating excerpts from his past remarks, including a description of God as “nonbinary.” FactCheck.org said the advertisement lacked important context, Reuters reported.
Henson said the negative advertising was intended to increase Republican voter turnout by generating opposition to Talarico.Talarico, meanwhile, has sought to make Paxton’s legal history a central issue in the campaign, describing him as “the most corrupt politician in Texas.”
Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 over allegations of abuse of office but was acquitted by the Texas Senate. Separate state securities-fraud charges dating to 2015 were dropped in 2024 under an agreement requiring community service, ethics training and restitution. Paxton denied wrongdoing.
The Paxton campaign did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment. It has previously argued that Talarico raises the allegations to distract voters from his own record.
Spending may not guarantee victory
The scale of Republican spending has raised questions about whether late-stage advertising can significantly change the race with only days remaining before Election Day. With relatively few undecided voters remaining, the outcome could depend heavily on whether campaigns succeed in bringing their supporters to the polls.
Republicans have argued that their internal polling shows an improvement in voter enthusiasm. Dave Carney, a longtime Republican strategist and adviser to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, told Reuters that the party’s concerns about turnout had diminished.
However, dissatisfaction over living costs and the national political environment remains a challenge for Republicans heading into the final stretch.
The Texas race illustrates the growing role of wealthy donors and outside political groups in determining the resources available to candidates. Musk’s contributions have helped Republicans dramatically expand their advertising presence, while Talarico has relied on small-dollar donations to sustain his campaign.
Whether the Republican financial advantage can overcome Talarico’s polling lead will become clearer as voting concludes on Nov. 3.