Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has warned that artificial intelligence could trigger two decades of major economic and social disruption. As technology advances, some people may eventually choose to live “like the Amish” to preserve human relationships and activities.
In a recent episode of The Verge’s “Decoder” podcast, Gates said the transition to an AI-driven economy would create winners and losers, with significant changes expected across industries. His comments came as Microsoft announced voluntary exit packages for eligible employees in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and India. The program could cover approximately 60,000 workers, representing more than a quarter of the company’s roughly 223,000 employees. The offer comes as Microsoft continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
“My big concern is this 20-year transition period, where they’ll have winners and losers and a lot of disruption,” Gates said, adding that society would have to navigate this period before reaching an era of greater abundance.
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During the podcast, Gates said AI could transform nearly every area of human activity. While the technology is already affecting white-collar jobs and intellectual work, he also expects humanoid robots to increasingly perform physical tasks, including building houses, growing food and performing surgery.
“If we don’t choose to massively slow down or stop, then we will have robots that can build houses, grow food, do surgery,” he said, warning that human labor could become unnecessary for producing many goods and services.
However, Gates suggested that people may still choose to reserve certain activities for humans, even when machines can perform them more efficiently. These could include childcare, sports, food preparation and art.
“We’re going to have real choices. We have had groups — not large groups, but like the Amish — who don’t live at the technology frontier. A lot of humanity may choose not to live at the technological frontier because of things we get from helping each other or coming up with unique ideas,” Gates said.
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The Microsoft co-founder also called for stronger government oversight of AI, arguing that the companies developing the technology should not bear sole responsibility for managing its risks. He warned that increasingly powerful and complex AI systems could pose serious security threats, including the potential to enable bioterrorism.
“The responsibility becomes the government’s responsibility, just like it is with every other dangerous product, although the magnitude there and the degree of change is minuscule by comparison,” he said.
When asked by host Nilay Patel about differences in the tone of discussions in the United States and China regarding the AI race and the optimism surrounding it, Gates cautioned against treating China as a single entity. He distinguished between private companies developing AI and the Chinese government, noting that the government was introducing regulations on how people, particularly young people, use the technology.
Gates suggested that major cybersecurity incidents, including attacks of varying scale, could eventually push the U.S. government to strengthen AI regulations.