Allan Lichtman, known for predicting Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election, has made a fresh forecast for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Lichtman, who is also known as the “American Nostradamus,” predicts that Democrats will make significant gains.
Lichtman said Democrats are well-positioned to make major gains in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, potentially taking control of both chambers of Congress. He has given Democrats more than a 90% chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives. He has also raised his estimate of their chances of taking the Senate from 67% to 70% in his latest forecast.
For the Senate, Lichtman said the most likely outcome would be a narrow 51-49 Democratic majority, though he cautioned that it was not guaranteed. He identified Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas as potential Democratic gains and expressed uncertainty about Michigan.
“I have predicted a 67 per cent chance that the Democrats would take back the Senate. I think the most likely but not necessarily definitive outcome is 51-49,” Lichtman told The Daily Beast on Monday.
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Lichtman also commented on the Michigan race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. He predicted that El-Sayed could become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate, despite facing Islamophobic attacks during the campaign.
Lichtman cited President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings as a major factor behind his forecast. “When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,” he told The Times of London. “It’s not a prediction; that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans,” he added. However, Lichtman clarified that this was a historical comparison, not his specific prediction for the 2026 elections.
Another factor favoring Democrats is the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they would support in congressional elections without naming individual candidates. Lichtman said Democrats were leading Republicans by between seven and 11 percentage points in these polls.
Lichtman also pointed to a difference in voter enthusiasm between the two parties. He said Democratic supporters appeared more enthusiastic about voting, while early voting figures indicated that Democrats were participating at higher rates than Republicans.
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“So far, it looks pretty good for Democrats,” Lichtman said. He explained that his forecast was not based exclusively on opinion polls. He had considered issue surveys, voter enthusiasm, approval ratings and other political factors before reaching his conclusion.
In 1981, Lichtman developed the 13 Keys to the White House forecasting system with Russian mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. The system aims to predict the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections by assessing historical and political conditions.
Lichtman’s reputation came into question after the 2024 election, when he incorrectly predicted that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would defeat Trump and become president. Lichtman attributed the error to the unusual circumstances surrounding former President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race. Harris entered the contest without going through a traditional presidential primary after Biden stepped aside. Lichtman said this made it difficult to assess the system’s nomination-related key.