With Amazon Prime Day just around the corner, Adobe predicts that online shopping in the U.S. will hit a record $23.8 billion from July 8 to 11. That’s a 28.4% increase compared to last year. Shoppers are expected to spend $9.6 billion more than they did during the same time in 2023.
This amounts to two Black Fridays, which generated $10.8 billion in online sales during the 2024 holiday shopping season, according to Adobe. Adobe also claimed that more people than ever are expected to shop using their phones. Mobile shopping is set to make up 52.5% of all online sales—about $12.5 billion.
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This year, shoppers can expect some solid discounts across U.S. retailers, ranging from 10% to 24% off. Adobe says clothing will have the biggest markdowns—around 24%, up from 20% last year. Electronics will see about 22% off, TVs around 17%, and appliances 16%. Toys will be discounted by 15%, furniture by 14%, computers by 12%, and sporting goods by 10%.
Adobe expects that many shoppers will use Prime Day as a head start on back-to-school shopping, from K-12 to college. Big jumps in online sales are expected for items like backpacks, lunchboxes, kids’ clothes, and school supplies. College essentials like mattresses, linens, microwaves, headphones, and computers are also set to see strong growth. Beyond school needs, many consumers are simply waiting for Prime Day deals to finally buy items they’ve had their eye on.
Based on past trends, many shoppers are holding off on buying big items like electronics and smartphones until Prime Day deals go live. People are also likely to take advantage of the discounts to upgrade to more expensive products. In fact, sales of higher-priced items are expected to jump by 18% during Prime Day compared to normal shopping days.
Now with AI chatbots, Adobe observed traffic increased by 1,300% compared to the prior year between November 1 and December 31, 2024. So now Adobe predicts that during Prime Day, traffic from generative AI tools will surge by a massive 3,200% compared to last year.
“AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details,” according to Adobe.
However, at this time, even the uncertainty hits because of the tariffs. Some sellers who usually take part in this big July sale are stepping back this year. These are mostly merchants who used to sell products made in China. Because of rising costs especially from new tariffs—they’re either skipping the event entirely or offering fewer discounts than usual.
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Prime Day is usually one of Amazon’s biggest sales events of the year, just behind Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Amazon puts a lot of money into promoting it through TV and social media ads. They tell sellers that joining in can help them get more attention and boost sales, even if they’re not offering big discounts. According to Reuters, due to tariffs for the first time many small-scale sellers are hesitant or unlikely to participate.
Recently, Amazon announced same‑day and next‑day delivery to more than 4,000 smaller towns and rural communities across the U.S. by the end of 2025. They’re putting in over $4 billion to triple their delivery network, build new facilities, and hire drivers. Using AI, Amazon will stock items based on local interests like birdseed in Dubuque, Iowa or sun lotion in Sharptown, Maryland to bring everyday essentials right to customers’ doors in no time.
By matching urban-level convenience in remote places, Amazon is trying to further scale its market for citizens living away.