The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 has increased slightly, but scientists assure us that there is no cause for alarm. According to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid now has a 2.3% chance of impact, up from 1.3% in December 2024 but the odds remain low — roughly one in 43.
The European Space Agency (ESA) had initially estimated a 1.3% chance of collision when the asteroid makes its closest approach on December 22, 2032. Spotted by NASA-funded skywatchers in Chile in December, asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide—comparable to the Tunguska asteroid, which flattened 830 square miles (2,150 sq km) of Siberian forest in 1908.
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Apart from its size, experts are in no mood to press the panic button and the asteroid has been given a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from zero (no risk) to ten (a catastrophic event). While this rating is rare, past asteroids that once appeared to pose a risk have been downgraded when more data became available.
“There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,” said NASA researcher Molly Wasser. “New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to zero.”
Colin Snodgrass, a planetary astronomy professor at the University of Edinburgh, reiterated the sentiment. “Most likely, this one will pass by harmlessly,” he told The Guardian. “It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.”
This isn’t the first time a potentially hazardous asteroid has been upgraded initially to be scaled down later. The asteroid 99942 Apophis, discovered in 2004 was initially considered a threat but eventually deemed harmless for at least the next century. Similarly, if 2024 YR were to remain a concern, scientists could employ asteroid-deflection strategies like NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission.
NASA’s DART Mission
In 2022, the DART mission sought to alter the path of a moonlet orbiting a larger asteroid, Dimorphos, by deliberately crashing a spacecraft into it. The mission demonstrated that humanity has the technology to nudge hazardous space rocks off collision courses with Earth, though the results of the pilot mission would be known later and scientists continue to monitor it until it makes close approaches to Earth in 2042 and 2062.
“This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like DART could be effective, if required,” Snodgrass noted. “So we have the technology, and it has been tested.”
The fear of a catastrophic asteroid impact remains fresh as scientists widely believe that an asteroid strike had caused the mass extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
NASA closely monitors near-Earth objects (NEOs) larger than 492 feet (150 meters) that come within 4.6 million miles (7.5 million km) of Earth, as their orbits could be altered by gravitational forces, increasing the risk of collision.
Back to asteroid 2024 YR4, it was first reported on December 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center, an international hub for small-body positional measurements. The object quickly gained attention when it appeared on NASA’s Sentry risk list that tracks asteroids with non-zero impact probabilities.
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The next significant asteroid event will occur in 2027 when the 800-meter-wide asteroid 1999 AN10 passes within one lunar distance—about 380,000 km—of Earth. Meanwhile, on April 19 of this year, astronomers will have another opportunity for close observation as comet PanSTARRS (C/2015 ER61) makes its closest approach to Earth at a distance of 175 million km.
For now, researchers remain focused on gathering more data on 2024 YR, ensuring that its trajectory is well understood. With continued monitoring and advancements in asteroid deflection technology, space scientists are confident in mitigating potential threats from space.