It looks like air travel may not recover anytime soon, even if the U.S. government shutdown were to end.
Until a deal is officially inked, airlines must continue to follow the Federal Aviation Administration’s emergency order to incrementally reduce flight capacity at 40 major U.S. airports, up to 10%. Starting Tuesday, 6% of flights will be cut.
This order has far-reaching consequences like passengers facing delays, cancellations, and missed connections, while airlines lose revenue and incur added operational costs from adjusting schedules and crews. Airport congestion can worsen even with fewer flights, straining services like baggage handling and gate management.
The disruptions ripple through the economy, affecting business travel, tourism, and cargo shipments, and eroding passenger confidence in air travel reliability. Overall, the measure prioritizes safety amid limited staffing but comes at the cost of efficiency, revenue, and convenience for travelers and businesses alike.
“There are significant challenges with these cancellations inside an airline, because it’s not easy to cancel randomly every day on 10% of our schedules and keep preserving those cancellations,” said Eash Sundaram, former chief digital and technology officer of JetBlue Airways.
READ: US orders 10% cut in flights at 40 airports as government shutdown enters 36th day (
President Donald Trump demanded Monday all controllers “get back to work, NOW” on Truth Social, recommending a bonus of $10,000 per controller who didn’t take time off during the shutdown.
“If we can’t get it done this week (to end the shutdown), we’re starting to get to the point where it won’t be fully recovered by Thanksgiving,” said pilot and aviation consultant Kit Darby. “I think if they do it this week, we can be very close to fully recovered by Thanksgiving.”
Darby said in his experience, controllers go “above and beyond.”
“They work extra hours, extra days,” Darby said. “Been doing it for a long time, have been poorly treated. But that’s just their nature.”
“It’s going to be harder for me to come back after the shutdown and have more controllers controlling the airspace,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told CNN on Sunday. “So, this is going to live on in air travel well beyond the timeframe that this government opens back up.”
READ: Over 700 U.S. flights canceled as government shutdown turmoil deepens (
“I think we’re going to see air traffic controllers, very few coming to work, which means you’ll have a few flights taking off and landing at different airports across the country,” Duffy said. “But for the thousands of flights that happen every day to move people around the country for the great American holiday, it’s not going to happen.”
Even after the shutdown ends, restoring normal air travel operations will require careful coordination. Airlines may have to reschedule thousands of flights, reposition crews, and work through accumulated delays, while airports and air traffic control centers need time to normalize operations.
Passenger confidence may remain shaken, especially around major travel periods like Thanksgiving, as travelers may fear further cancellations or delays. The experience could also influence consumer behavior, with some choosing alternative transportation or postponing travel altogether, adding longer-term impacts on the airline and tourism industries.
The situation also highlights broader vulnerabilities in the U.S. government’s reliance on continuous federal operations for critical infrastructure. When essential services are disrupted, the consequences extend far beyond government offices, affecting millions of Americans and significant economic activity.