A trading account has made big bucks by betting on the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. An account trading under the username “Magamyman” made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.
“It’s insane this is legal,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) wrote on X. “People around Trump are profiting off war and death,” he said, adding he plans to introduce legislation “asap” to outlaw this kind of activity.
The trades drew scrutiny from members of Congress and critics of prediction markets, who say the platforms invite people with access to classified information to profit on lethal military operations. On Polymarket alone, half-a-billion dollars was traded over when exactly U.S. forces would drop bombs on Iran.
The United States and Israel had launched a coordinated military offensive against Iran, marking a major escalation in long-running tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program, regional influence, and proxy conflicts. The joint campaign, described in reports as “Operation Epic Fury”, involved airstrikes on multiple Iranian military and infrastructure targets.
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The Trump family reportedly has ties to Polymarket. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, is an adviser to Polymarket and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital has invested millions into the controversial business.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a marketplace where people trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. The price of each contract reflects what participants collectively believe is the probability of that event happening.
For example, a contract might pay $1 if a certain candidate wins an election. If the contract trades at $0.65, the market is implying a 65% chance of victory. Traders buy when they think the probability is higher than the current price and sell when they think it’s lower.
Prediction markets are used for forecasting elections, economic indicators, company performance, sports results, and even geopolitical events. Well-known platforms have included political and financial forecasting exchanges.
Amanda Fischer, a former official at the Securities and Exchange Commission who now works at the financial reform group Better Markets, told NPR that Congress needs to act to stop “perverse incentives and chaos caused by betting on death and destruction.”
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The emergence of prediction markets tied to high-stakes geopolitical events raises serious ethical, legal, and societal questions. Beyond traditional financial speculation, these platforms create incentives for individuals to profit from extreme outcomes, including conflict, death, or political instability. Such systems can blur the line between forecasting and moral responsibility, as participants may benefit financially from human suffering or the escalation of violence.
From a regulatory standpoint, existing frameworks struggle to address these novel markets. Securities, gambling, and derivatives laws may not fully encompass transactions based on real-world catastrophes, leaving significant gaps in oversight.
Societally, these markets can erode public trust in institutions. When financial gain intersects with global crises, the perception of profiteering from tragedy can inflame political polarization and undermine confidence in democratic and international systems. It remains unclear how broadly such platforms will proliferate, or whether market behavior can be reliably separated from ethical constraints.