U.S. and Iranian officials have come to an agreement to end the war, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in a pact that led to a drop in oil prices, according to a Reuters report. This strait has been a focal point of tensions in the ongoing conflict that began in February with Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran.
Around 20% of the world’s oil used to pass through the strait, before the war disrupted the traffic. While the opening of the Strait of Hormuz would have far-reaching consequences, experts have warned that a complete return to normalcy will take till next year.
Asian countries like the Philippines ordered a national energy emergency, while Japan and South Korea dug deep into their reserves to sustain through the crisis. In the West, the impact was seen most at fuel stations, and air fares.
READ: Iran peace deal nears amid fresh Hormuz tensions (June 14, 2026)
Once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, and de-mining operations are completed, hundreds of tankers carrying oil, gas and fuel byproducts stuck in the Persian Gulf will begin their journey to Asian ports. This will be followed by a rectification of a disrupted supply chain from major suppliers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar, ultimately resuming fertilizer supply to Asia.
Albert Park, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, told New York Times, that the reduced fertilizer supply has already impacted the May-July planting season in Asia, but further disruption could lead to reduced crop yields and ultimately food security concerns. “The impact will be delayed, meaning we likely won’t see the brunt of the production shortfalls until later in the year.”
Meanwhile, Joshua Ngu, vice chairman of Asia Pacific at the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told New York Times that the economic disruptions caused by over 100 days of war won’t be solved in a short period of time. In gas markets, Ngu said, “The $100 oil price that we saw in March will only fully come through three to six months from then.”
READ: Oil prices settle $1 higher after Iran and Israel said they halted attacks (June 9, 2026)
This will also impact Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) since they are indexed to oil prices and operate with a three to six months lag. So, the drop-in fuel prices will be followed by a drop in LNG prices in a few months.
Rockford Weitz, professor of practice in maritime studies at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, told Al Jazeera that the maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz might take months to return to pre-war levels.
“This has been a much longer disruption in shipping than anyone expected. And the shipping industry is gonna be hesitant at first to go fully in,” he said. “Secondly, the production facilities of both oil and gas have been damaged in a number of Gulf countries, including in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. So there will be some time for that to recover.”