As President Donald Trump prepared to take the oath of office as the 47th President of the United States on Jan. 20, the world watched closely, especially climate change activists, who braced for the potential environmental impact of his policies.
Trump, who campaigned on promises to “Make America Great Again,” vowed to prioritize a high standard of living, job creation, and economic growth, all of which he believes rely on an unfettered market economy. This vision, however, could lead to a sharp increase in industrial growth and a continued reliance on fossil fuels, particularly petrol, diesel, and natural gas, raising concerns about the future of climate action.
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It has been established from various studies and experiments that burning of fossil fuels aggravates climate change by producing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons.
However, Trump is known for scoffing at climate change and his advocacy for the American way of life based on the relentless use of fossil fuels, ensuring a comfortable life, where the market is king and people strive to become high-flying consumers, caring little about its impacts on the environment.
Given the fact that China has become the world leader of the industrial production, accounting for a whopping 31.6%, while the U.S., a distant second, at 15.9% and India, one of the emerging economies at merely 2.9%. The way forward for Trump is to boost the mass manufacturing and output of cheap consumer products, so that America could be great once again!
Experts and thinkers, both in India and the U.S. are worried over Trump 2.0 and the future of the climate change scenario and negations. In a blog titled “Trump 2.0 – Any Room for Energy and Climate Diplomacy?” on Nov. 20, 2024, Benjamin Schmitt of Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, a University of Pennsylvania based think tank, wrote, “The re-election of President Donald Trump this month is sure to serve as a shock to the system in a variety of areas from national security to economic policy—and energy and climate are sure to be no outlier here. But unlike some of these other disciplines of international policy, the Trump 2.0 administration is more likely to hew closer to the priorities and strategies it took the first time around on energy and climate diplomacy.”
As Trump’s victory puts him in charge of the second-highest carbon emitting economy after China, although the per capita emission of greenhouse gasses of the U.S. is the highest in the world: 17.61 tons per capita in 2023 and China at 11.11 tons per capita while India is at around 2 tons per capita.
Although, the U.S. per-person emission rate is higher than China and India, it has been decreasing since 2000 and yet the U.S. and China emit nearly twice and eight times as much carbon dioxide per person as India respectively.
China and India are both taking steps to transition to a green economy. China has installed more solar panels in 2023 than the U.S. has in its entire history. India’s climate actions are considered to be among the strongest in the world.
China is responsible for about one-quarter of annual climate-warming pollution, and together with India, the two countries account for one-third of yearly global emissions (the U.S. accounts for about 11%).
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As Trump takes steps and pursues policies to boost the U.S. economy and industrial outputs once again, meaning the world will surpass the 1.5°C warming limit. Without deep U.S. emission cuts at home, the gap between 1.5°C and reality will only grow wider. But Trump already made moves to cut back on U.S. regulations on emissions-intensive industry, ramp up fossil fuel exploitation, and dismantle a range of federal energy transition programs, including Biden’s signature climate policy, the Inflation Reduction Act. This could add 4 billion tons of emissions by 2030 compared to Biden’s plans – the equivalent of double all the savings from wind, solar and other clean technologies around the world for the past five years.
In India, climate activists, experts and academicians are worried over Trump 2.0 and climate change. The Center for Science and Environment, a Delhi based non-profit organization, working on science & environment’s deputy director general, Chandra Bhushan, says, “Trump’s victory is a challenge for those who believe that climate change is a clear and present danger, as Trump wants to promote coal and believes that climate change is a Third World conspiracy to dislodge the USA from its current position of the world’s industrial and economic leader and make it a Third World member.”
Dehradun-based research institute, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology that has conducted research on glacier retreat and its impact on the environment, such as on the retreat of Gomukh Glacier giving birth to the Ganges, India’s most sacred river-system, and glacier retreat in Ladakh. The retreat of the Parkachik Glacier in Ladakh was reportedly accelerated between 1999 and 2021, rising to 12 meters per year. Field surveys between 2015 and 2021 showed an even higher retreat of 20 meters per year. The study concluded that the accelerated retreat is due to climate change, and that the glacier’s retreat could lead to the formation of three glacial lakes.
The study also found that the thickness of debris cover significantly alters the glacier’s response to climate change.
Professor S.P. Sati of Veer Chandra Singh Garhwali Uttarakhand University of Horticulture & Forestry, termed Trump’s victory as “a blow to climate change negotiation in the world.” Trump’s election could lead to an additional four billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) of U.S. emissions by 2030, compared to continuing former President Joe Biden’s plans, Carbon Brief’s analysis found earlier this year.
Alas, there seems a light sparkling at the end of this dark tunnel, as many countries will continue to pursue their climate targets, irrespective of U.S. inaction.
“The U.S. at this COP-29 is not just a lame duck, it’s a dead duck,” said Professor Richard Klein, an expert on climate change policy for the Stockholm Environment Institute.
“They can’t commit to anything and that means that countries like China will not want to commit to anything.”
In recent years, richer countries such as the U.S., UK and EU have tried to increase the funds available for developing countries to cope with climate change. But they also insist that big developing economies also contribute.
“The US basically wanted to have China cough up some money for that fund as well. Now they won’t be able to do that. That leaves China off the hook,” Klein said.
Climate scientists say developing countries need billions of dollars of extra investment to become net zero, where they are not contributing to climate change, and stave off the effects of rising temperatures.
Global leadership on climate is changing, with positive developments on coal use in China and India likely to reduce projected global carbon emissions by roughly two to three billion tons by 2030 compared to our estimate last year. The recent, highly adverse rollbacks by President Trump are unlikely to have a major impact on global emissions by 2030.
The Trump Administration’s climate policies, if fully implemented and not compensated by other actors, are projected to flatten US emissions instead of them continuing on a downward trend.
China’s coal consumption has declined in three consecutive years (2013 to 2016), and the outlook is for a continued slow decline. India has stated that planned coal-fired power plants may not be needed and with announced policies— if fully implemented — it would see a significant slowing down in the growth of carbon dioxide emissions over the next decade.
Both China and India look set to overachieve their Paris Agreement climate pledges. Five years ago, the idea of either country stopping—or even slowing — coal use was considered an insurmountable hurdle, as coal-fired power plants were thought necessary to satisfy the energy demands of these nations. Yet, recent observations show they are now on the way towards overcoming this challenge. This stands in contrast to the decisions of the U.S. administration under President Trump, who bowed out from the Paris Agreement using his executive order.
Global warming is likely to be slightly less severe than previously expected thanks to stronger climate policies by China and India that will offset less U.S. action under Trump.
But average world temperatures are still on track to rise far above the key goal set in the 2015 Paris Agreement of limiting warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times.
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The Carbon Action Tracker (CAT) report, by three independent European research groups, said current policies meant the world was headed for a warming of 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 Fahrenheit) by 2100, down from 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 Fahrenheit) it predicted a year ago.
“This is the first time since the CAT began tracking action in 2009 that policies at a national level have visibly reduced its end of century temperature estimate,” it said.
China was on track to over-achieve its pledge under the Paris Agreement to peak its carbon emissions by 2030, it said. And India was also making progress to limit a surge in emissions driven by more coal use.
A rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) in global average temperatures could cause loss of tropical coral reefs, Alpine glaciers, Arctic summer sea ice and perhaps an irreversible melt of Greenland’s ice that would drive up world sea levels, a U.N. science panel says.
“It is clear who the leaders are here: in the face of U.S. inaction, China and India are stepping up,” said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, one of the research groups.
Trump, who doubts that climate change is primarily caused by human-made greenhouse gas emissions, said in June 2024 that he would instead focus on promoting jobs in the U.S. fossil fuel industry.
Just like an ostrich shoving its head in the sand, waiting for the storm to pass, Trump’s approach to climate change borders on!