Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is holding a commanding lead in the race for New York City mayor, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll released Tuesday.
The survey, reported by Politico, found that 46 percent of likely voters backed Mamdani, the Democratic nominee who stunned New York’s political establishment earlier this year by defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary. Mamdani’s victory marked a sharp generational and ideological shift in city politics, positioning the 32-year-old democratic socialist as the frontrunner to lead America’s largest city.
Cuomo, running as an independent after his primary loss, trails far behind with 24 percent support. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, also mounting an independent bid, has the backing of just 9 percent, while Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa draws 15 percent. Independent Jim Walden registers under 1 percent.
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The poll comes amid political intrigue at the national level. Reports suggest President Donald Trump has been exploring ways to engineer a one-on-one showdown between Mamdani and Cuomo, voicing concern about what he called a “communist” running New York. Speculation has swirled about possible diplomatic postings for Adams, including a rumored ambassadorship to Saudi Arabia, though Adams has dismissed suggestions he is under pressure to withdraw.
A direct matchup would significantly tighten the race. In a head-to-head scenario, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo narrows to 48 percent to 44 percent, with most Adams and Sliwa supporters shifting toward the former governor.
The son of Indian filmmaker Mira Nair, who would be the city’s first South Asian and Muslim mayor, told Time in an interview that he wants to be a mayor who breaks down barriers between politicians and the public.
Still, Mamdani’s message on affordability — the centerpiece of his campaign — continues to resonate. Nearly half of voters (49 percent) said they trust Mamdani most to tackle the city’s affordability crisis, compared with 23 percent for Cuomo, 13 percent for Sliwa, and 10 percent for Adams. On housing, Mamdani again leads with 46 percent, more than doubling Cuomo’s 24 percent.
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Yet New York’s Democratic leadership remains cautious. Party heavyweights such as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have so far withheld endorsements, signaling unease with Mamdani’s progressive politics despite his clear popularity among city voters.
The Times/Siena poll surveyed 1,284 likely voters across New York City between Sept. 2 and Sept. 6. It carries a margin of error of ±3.6 percentage points.
Mamdani, who became a U.S. citizen in 2018, was raised in Uganda, South Africa, and New York by public-facing parents: Mahmood Mamdani, a scholar of postcolonialism who landed at Columbia University, and filmmaker Mira Nair, an Academy Award nominee who has directed luminaries such as Denzel Washington.