Update: A previous version of this story said “2.6%,” however the current version has been updated to reflect latest information.
NASA has increased the estimated probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth to 3.1%, up from 2.6% in less than a week. The probability of a “city-killer” asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 just increased to 1 in 32, according to NASA, while a chilling animation depicting the apocalyptic impact that the asteroid could have is going viral online.
The frequent and sharp rise in probability has made the asteroid one of the most closely monitored near-Earth objects, with astronomers worldwide rushing to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to assess the potential damage.
Estimated to be 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, the asteroid is comparable in size to the Statue of Liberty or Big Ben. If it strikes a populated area, it could cause significant destruction. NASA’s latest projections indicate that potential impact zones include the Eastern Pacific, the Atlantic Ocean, South America, Africa, and South Asia, with densely populated countries like India, Nepal, and Bangladesh at high risk.
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As scientists warn that even slight changes in its trajectory could alter the impact location, the “city-killer” is now projected to wipe out any of large cities such as Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata and Dhaka. Meanwhile, a dramatic simulation has been created by 3D animation wizard Alvaro Gracia Montoya, showing a massive space rock laying waste an entire metropolis.
When a Chilean space telescope recently captured images of 2024 YR4, it was 37 million miles from Earth. Initially, experts considered deflection strategies like NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which in 2022 successfully altered the path of Dimorphos, a moonlet orbiting a larger asteroid. However, NASA now says it is too late to deflect 2024 YR4, and its trajectory will be closely monitored for further updates.
Discovered in December 2024, the asteroid has been classified later as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Scale, an unusual rating indicating a greater than 1% chance of impact. While 2.6% may seem low, scientists stress that in astronomical terms, it is significant. If the asteroid collides with Earth, it could trigger an explosion capable of destroying an area over 50 kilometers in radius, equivalent to multiple nuclear blasts.
The potential impact is projected for 2:02 PM GMT (7:32 PM IST) on December 22, 2032. However, uncertainties remain as space agencies, including NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), refine calculations of its size, speed, and trajectory using advanced telescopes such as the JWST.
Previously considered a low-risk object, 2024 YR4 is now among the most dangerous near-Earth asteroids being tracked. Projections suggest it will pass just 106,000 km from Earth, but with a margin of error of 1.6 million km, scientists caution that a collision cannot yet be ruled out. However, despite the odds, experts have said that there is no need for alarm.
“I’m not panicking,” Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society said. “Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy and good,” he quickly added. “This is not a crisis at this point in time. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city,” said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office.
Risk Corridor
The potential impact zone spans western Central America, northern South America, the central Atlantic Ocean, Africa, and South Asia, meaning highly populated areas, including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, could be in danger. Scientists emphasize that these estimates may change as more data emerges.
Public concern has intensified as the asteroid’s estimated collision probability has risen from 1% to 2.3%, with some experts suggesting it could be as large as 200 meters. Social media has responded with growing alarm, describing it as “city-killer.” If 2024 YR4 strikes Earth, NASA estimates the energy released could exceed 500 atomic bombs, wiping out entire cities. Given this risk, NASA has started identifying possible impact sites to prepare emergency response measures if necessary.
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David Rankin, an engineer with NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey, has identified a risk corridor extending from northern South America through the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Countries most at risk include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. While Rankin reassures that impact remains unlikely, he warns that “if 2024 YR4 does hit Earth, we cannot ignore the possible consequences.”
While there’s still a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely, and as researchers learn more about its trajectory, the odds of a strike are likely to decrease to even 0%, based on its current risk level in the NASA data. There’s also a tiny 0.3% chance that YR4 will hit the moon instead of Earth, according to some experts.